Given mutual mistrust — after all, Mr. Trump already pulled out of one nuclear deal — a new accord would have to “perpetually restrain Iran’s nuclear advancement in return for perpetual economic guarantees,” ones that Ayatollah Khamenei, “who is deeply anti-American,” believes will be guaranteed, said Ms. Vakil, the Mideast specialist at Chatham House. Iran is also likely to want strong security guarantees for the future of the regime.
Mr. Netanyahu said on Monday in the Oval Office that he sought a deal “the way it was done in Libya,” referring to 2003, when Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, then the leader, agreed to eliminate all of his country’s weapons of mass destruction, including a nuclear-weapons program. If Mr. Trump “seeks to dismantle the Iranian nuclear program Libya-style, in addition to closing down Iran’s missile program and Tehran’s relations with its regional partners, then diplomacy will most likely be dead on arrival,” argued Trita Parsi, an Iran expert at the Quincy Institute.
But if Mr. Trump’s strategy “is centered on achieving a verification-based deal that prevents an Iranian bomb — his only red line — then there is reason to be optimistic about upcoming talks,” he continued.
Mr. Vaez believes the Iranians are skeptical about getting a deal with Mr. Trump. “I see signs that they are preparing for war,” he said, including efforts to increase social cohesion, vowing not to enforce a strict law on the hijab, releasing some political prisoners and warning about protests.
After Israel’s efforts to destroy Iran’s proxies and allies in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and Israel air attacks on Iran’s missile defenses, Iran is perceived as militarily vulnerable.
But Mr. Vaez warns of overconfidence. “No doubt the Iranians are weakened, but they are not weak, and they are not desperate,” he said. “Iran does not want to validate pressure as a tool for concessions, which is a slippery slope,” he said. “For Khamenei, the one thing more dangerous than suffering from U.S. sanctions is surrendering to them.”
