Friday Briefing

The U.S. and China are headed for a ‘monumental’ split

A dizzying escalation of tariffs has ruptured a trade relationship between the U.S. and China forged over decades, jeopardizing the fate of two superpowers and threatening to drag down the world economy. Many economists cautioned that the full repercussions would not be felt for weeks.

President Trump clarified that he had raised tariffs on Chinese goods by a total of 145 percent, as tensions between Beijing and Washington showed no signs of easing. Here’s a quick guide to how the tariffs between the two nations have ramped up in the last two months.

The S&P 500 tumbled 3.5 percent yesterday, signaling renewed investor concern about the worsening trade war and the destabilizing effects of President Trump’s tariff policies. Treasury bonds began to sell off again, oil prices dropped and the stocks of Big Tech companies like Apple and Nvidia fell.

“I’ve seen some estimates saying that the impact of the most recent tariff structure is actually worse for consumers,” said Ana Swanson, my colleague who covers trade. That’s because most of the world’s cellphones, laptops, toys, video games, blankets and party decorations come from China, she said.

Quotable: “We are approaching a monumental train wreck breakup,” said Orville Schell, director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York.

What to watch in the Iran nuclear talks

The U.S. and Iran are sending envoys to Oman for high-stakes talks tomorrow on a nuclear deal. In some ways, Iran will arrive at the table in a weak position: Israel has destroyed nearly all of the air defenses protecting the nuclear facilities of Iran and greatly diminished its proxy forces, Hamas and Hezbollah.

But Iran is also far closer now to being able to produce a nuclear weapon than it was when the last accord was negotiated in 2015. (Trump pulled out of that deal in 2018.) To learn more about what’s at stake, we reached out to Farnaz Fassihi, our U.N. bureau chief, who also reports on Iran.

What do the U.S. and Iran each hope to gain?

For Iran, the threat of war has never been more serious. It needs sanctions relief to improve its dire economy. For the U.S., Iran’s rapid escalation of nuclear enrichment and ability to produce bombs, if they choose to do so, is not acceptable.

Would Iran agree to dismantle its nuclear sites?

This will be a dealbreaker from the get-go. It’s also not entirely clear if this is Trump’s goal. He has said his goal is for Iran not to have a nuclear weapon, and from Iran’s perspective, that can be achieved with strict monitoring mechanisms and reduction of uranium enrichment levels.

How Hamas and the U.S. tried to strike a hostage deal

In a break with longstanding U.S. policy, Trump administration officials met with senior Hamas officials in Qatar three times last month, in an effort to strike a deal to free Edan Alexander, the last living American Israeli hostage in Gaza, insiders said.

In the face of Israel’s opposition, Hamas’s hesitation and the Trump administration’s shifting position, an agreement to free Alexander never came together. Six people familiar with the closed-door meetings told The Times what happened.

Israel news:

• Hundreds of Air Force reservists urged the government to agree to a deal with Hamas to return hostages, even at the price of stopping the war in Gaza.

• Turkey and Israel have started talks to prevent conflicts between their troops in Syria, as an Israeli military campaign and a growing rivalry for influence have raised tensions.

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In the biggest luxury deal of the year, Prada announced yesterday that it was buying Versace for 1.25 billion euros. The deal is a sign of faith in the continued value of “Made in Italy,” even as the financial markets are in chaos.

The two brands are a study in contrasts, our chief fashion critic, Vanessa Friedman, writes. Versace made its name on flash, fantasy and the tightrope between bad taste and elegance. Prada embraced a contrarian exploration of gender politics and the strange allure of ugly chic. Are their creative drives aligned?

That’s it for today’s briefing. I’m away for the next couple of weeks, but you’ll be in my colleagues’ capable hands.

See you next time. — Natasha

Reach Natasha and the team at briefing@nytimes.com.